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It doesn’t take a survey to gauge consumer sentiment
by Steve Booher
Monday, April 28, 2008

It’s late April. Let’s take stock of where things stand.

Hmm … let’s see …

Gas prices have never been higher. Some families are spending between $75 and $100 just to fill their tanks every week, just so they can get to work, just so they can pay for gas.

Real-estate foreclosures are rampant. And, if you’re not being foreclosed upon, your house (the largest investment most people make) probably isn’t worth what it was two years ago.

Food costs more these days as the price of a bushel of corn or soybeans increases. That spike is partially due to increased demand for both crops for ethanol and biodiesel production.

Oh, yeah, jobs are being eliminated. And, if not eliminated, careers are a little less secure these days. For instance, my brother-in-law Kevin works at the Harley-Davidson plant in Kansas City. He said management announced that workers would take mandatory layoffs, an unthinkable move a few years ago.

So, it probably came as no surprise to anyone when USA Today reported last week that consumer confidence posted its lowest marks since the early 1980s.

Officially, that’s the Reuters/University of Michigan survey that measures consumer sentiment. According to the newspaper, “More consumers reported that their personal financial situation had worsened than any time since 1982 due to high fuel and food prices as well as shrinking income gains and widespread reports of declines in home values. Never before in the long history of surveys have so many consumers reported hearing news of unfavorable economic development as in the April survey.”

Wow.

It’s amazing that it takes a scientific survey to gather the same information that you can get just by talking to Joe Six-pack.

Yeah, we’re not feeling too confident about the economy these days.

And I’m not sure many folks believe that any of the three presidential candidates — Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or John McCain — have the answers to solve these problems. It looks like it will be a long, mean, $4-a-gallon summer — even with a few hundred dollars in “economic stimulus” checks.

I’m not sure how Reuters or the University of Michigan conducts this survey. They probably call a certain number of households and ask a standard set of questions, then analyze the results. But I think that mere numbers are too sterile, too clinical to describe how some Americans feel about the economy. Come on, does 62.5 or 69.7 really communicate the disgust you feel?

So, here’s my consumer sentiment.

I’m actually more confident that one of the following things will happen than I am that the U.S. economy will pull itself out of recession:

The St. Joseph City Council, Buchanan County Commission and St. Joseph School Board will actually issue a joint press release that reads, “No thanks, we already have enough money and don’t really need a tax increase.”

A video will be posted to YouTube that shows teenagers helping one another with homework and volunteering at a nursing home.

The Chiefs will win the Super Bowl. (OK, I admit I’m not being totally honest here. I think the economy will recover nicely before the Chiefs even make the playoffs.)

Representatives of the Chinese government emerge from a closed-door meeting and announce, “Gee, after talking with the Dalai Lama, he’s not such a bad guy after all.”

Scientists will discover a substance that lowers cholesterol, burns excess fat and regulates blood sugar levels. That substance is called “bacon.”

Yeah, I know. None of these things will ever come to pass.

But when you’re standing at a convenience store, pumping liquid gold into your gas tank so you can drive to the grocery store and buy expensive food, you have a tendency to exaggerate a bit. And there seems to be no quick fix.

Besides, if we’re going to measure Americans’ consumer sentiment, let’s make it a little more colorful than just numbers, charts and graphs.

Let’s tell everybody how we really feel so that there’s no doubt as to the level of our disgust.

Steve Booher’s column runs on Mondays.


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