The "yikes" number appears to be 180. That's where Republicans in the U.S. House fear their membership total could fall in the November elections. This scenario got plenty of attention in Washington on Wednesday.

Republican representatives, in the legislative majority less than a year and a half ago, now find themselves in a toxic political environment not seen in Washington for more than three decades. Tom Davis, a House member from Virginia and former head of the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, distributed a memo Wednesday comparing the current climate to the post-Watergate elections.

Republicans, who lost 30 seats in the 2006 elections, face the prospect of dropping another 19 this fall unless they strengthen their "brand." There are now 199 GOP House members, compared to 235 Democrats.

In blunt language, Mr. Davis wrote: "Members instinctively understand that the Republican brand is in the trash can."

This assessment came a day after Democrats won their third special election of the spring, all in House districts that had been reliably Republican. Based on this, national polls, the number of open seats, the amount of campaign money raised, voter registration numbers and other factors, Mr. Davis saw his party as facing a "steep climb" in the coming elections.

"This slope is exacerbated by the fact that little has changed to improve our image over the past 18 months and that voters looking for change are unlikely to embrace the same-old, same-old, which was overwhelmingly rejected in the last midterms," the Republican leader wrote.

Missouri's 6th District congressional race and the one in Kansas' 2nd District get mentions in the 20-page memo. Mr. Davis references key House races and shows a chart with incumbent Rep. Sam Graves with $1.1 million cash on hand while Democratic challenger Kay Barnes remains close with roughly $954,000.

"House elections at the macro level are wars of attrition, and the more resources one side has, the more likely they are to put the other side on defense," Mr. Davis wrote. "(Democrats) are moving from defense, where they should be after their 2006 sweep, to offense."

The Republican leader puts Kansas Rep. Nancy Boyda in a list of freshman Democrats that have possible vulnerabilities in reelection bids. He applies the Congressional Quarterly rating to the Kansas 2nd District race: "No clear favorite."

Mr. Davis adds, though, that his party must work over the next six months "restoring the GOP brand name so that it is not an albatross to our candidates."