Recent history doesn’t inspire much confidence in the chances for a Northwest Missouri State victory this weekend.

There, I’ve said it.

But before everyone with a Bearcat paw decal on the back window of their SUV starts slamming me, please let me explain.

As an old-school, no-bias-allowed journalist, I must admit I’ve never been fond of the football pick ’em features or giving lengthy analysis of games. I figure the coaches know better than I, although they’re never going to come right out and say it publicly.

Besides, I know that the coaches and players I interview on a weekly basis can and do read, and it’s almost like I’m looking coach Mel Tjeerdsma or 6-foot-6, 300-pound offensive guard/Golden Gloves boxer Tom Pestock in the eye and telling them, “You’re not good enough.”

Clearly uncomfortable on both counts.

But the trend in my craft has moved toward more analysis and opinion, so I’m going to give mine:

Northwest is good enough to beat most teams, but it’s not good enough to beat Nebraska-Omaha on Saturday.

For one thing, Northwest has not had that much success against the Mavericks and very little in Omaha. In fact, the last time the Bearcats won in Omaha was Nov. 22, 1996, in a 22-21 squeaker.

The home team has won the previous eight games in this series, dating back to 1999. And guess where this game is being played: Al F. Caniglia Field in beautiful downtown Omaha, Neb.

Last year, the Bearcats gave one away in the fourth quarter at Caniglia Field, taking a 21-6 lead into the fourth quarter before losing 25-21.

And Omaha looks to be more experienced and more talented this season than it was in 2007.

With Zach Miller at quarterback, Northwest will have its hands full with a 6-foot-4, 230-pound, mobile runner who has the distinction of outrushing even his starting tailback, Brian McNeill.

McNeill isn’t shabby, either, ranking third in the conference in rushing, right behind his signal caller.

Tjeerdsma himself sees Omaha’s receiving corps as better and more experienced than last year, probably enough to keep the Bearcats from loading up the box.

Northwest, meanwhile, may be just a notch down this season on both defense and offense, even though both units performed admirably last week at also-ran Truman State.

But Nebraska-Omaha is ranked No. 5 nationally, and we all know what happened in the season opener when the Bearcats played a ranked team.

There are some positives, to be sure. Last season Northwest had experienced just one quarter of game action – the “lightning game” – before running into the Maverick stampede. Tjeerdsma admitted his troops “ran out of gas” in that decisive fourth quarter. That should not happen this time around.

And the last time the Bearcats won in Omaha, it was an afternoon kickoff, just like it will be on Saturday.

Unfortunately, that coincidence in scheduling isn’t likely to be enough.

OK, I’ve given my opinion and analysis. Let the hate mail begin.