STATE WRESTLING BRACKETOLOGY

Maryville’s Dannen Merrill might have lost the Class 1 District 4 championship match Saturday, but as is often the case, the state draw can randomly reward such a loss.

Ranked second at 119, Merrill lost a 3-2 decision to Marceline’s Austin Paalhar at Mid-Buchanan High School, but Merrill’s two-seed at state gives him a favorable path to the finals. Merrill sits on the opposite half of the bracket from Paalhar (No. 3) and Knob Noster’s Kirk Luzano (No. 1, 27-0), a two-time state champion.

In fact, the next best wrestler in Merrill’s half of the bracket is Diamond’s Craig VanLue, ranked sixth.

Merrill’s teammate, Bryce Alexander, also appears to have a strong shot at his first state final at 152.

Ranked third entering districts, Alexander saw the top two seeds — Whitfield’s Jason Ott and Brookfield’s Austin Lindsay — drop to 145 at districts. Jason Marshke replaced Ott for Whitfield at 152. Marshke was previously ranked ninth at 160.

Jacob Buckallew swapped places with Lindsay, and Maysville’s Jake Rhoad pinned Buckallew at the Class 1 District 4 tournament. Alexander went on to beat Rhoad 9-8 in the finals, and the Maryville junior is 2-0 against the Maysville senior this year.

Rhoad and Alexander could meet again with Rhoad, the defacto No. 2-ranked wrestler at 152. To earn the rematch, Rhoad appears to have the tougher slate with Jacob Mercer of Carrollton — the default No. 3 — awaiting him in a potential quarterfinal matchup.

Here’s a breakdown of other brackets involving top area state title contenders:

Kemper Kellerstrass, Cameron; Class 2 140 pounds

Seeking a second straight state final appearance, the Dragons’ senior appears to have a great shot at the semifinals and a favorable opponent should he get there.

Kellerstrass (43-0) the one of only two ranked wrestlers in his quadrant along with DeVonte Shivers of Mexico, and Shivers ranks ninth. Shivers (30-12) faces honorable-mention Tyler Brittingham of Pleasant Hill in the first round.

Potential semifinal opponents for Kellerstrass include Jack Saebens of Owensville (No. 4) and Dalton England of Carl Junction (No. 6).

No. 3 Jason Barmann of Platte County failed to reach the finals of Kellerstrass’ district.

Barmmann, No. 1 Colton Schmitz of Kirksville, No. 5 Josh Bridgeman of Union and No. 8 Nick Smith of Odessa are all on the opposite side of Kellerstrass. The seventh- and 10th-ranked wrestlers did not qualify for state.

Nick Taul and Dustin Williams, Benton

Finals hopefuls, Taul drew well, while Williams faces a likely semifinal matchup that could ultimately decide the 189-pound champion.

Williams (42-4) sits on the same side of the draw as Moberly’s Weston Keleher (45-1), who defeated Williams earlier this season. Williams beat Keleher last year.

Aside from those top-ranked grapplers, the 189-pound bracket appears to be wide open, but Williams and Keleher are now the favorites to place first and third, just depending on the order.

Taul — currently ranked fourth — beat previous No. 1 Anthony Duncan of Ruskin to earn the Class 2 District 4 championship at 285. Taul’s biggest obstacle to the semis is Kory Zimmerman of Hancock, who Taul pinned earlier this season.

In the semifinals, his potential matchups include No. 2 Joe Dahman of Harrisonville and No. 6 Bobby Bridges of Union. No. 1 Duncan, No. 3 Kale Crosby of Reed Springs, No. 5 Aaron Sinclair of Excelsior Springs and No. 8 Jacob Brawner of Kirksville are opposite of Taul and Dahman.

Derek Bohnsack, Lafayette; Class 2 112 pounds

Not necessarily a finals contender, Bohnsack hopes to compete for at least a medal in his first trip to state.

His win against Bryson Dixon of Benton in the district finals helps his case. A trip to the semifinals assures a medal, but Bohnsack must survive Chris Renteria of Monett (10th at 103) and either Chris Perry of Fulton (second, 112) or unranked Justin Robey to get there.

Renteria is a freshman, while Perry is a four-time qualifier with no medals at this point. So it’s not out of the question.

Dixon’s road appears tougher despite a good first-round matchup with 18-21 Josh Thomson of Odessa in the first round, but No. 3 Randi Beltz (42-1) — the only female to ever earn a state medal in Missouri — is a likely quarterfinal opponent.

Dixon and Bohnsack avoid a potential matchup with either of the top-two wrestlers until the semifinals.

Cody Hummer, Savannah; Class 2 103 pounds

The Savages freshman 103 took a gigantic step backward after a decisive loss to Oak Grove’s Mitchell Bradley in Saturday’s district final.

The good news?

Hummer wouldn’t see Bradley again unless they made it to the finals. Hummer would also need a first-round win and a revenge victory against Pleasant Hill’s Kolton Ross just to reach the semifinals.

Ross — ranked second — beat Hummer at the Odessa Invitational and even a semifinal appearance would bring a likely matchup with top-ranked Austin Roper (35-2) of Kirksville. Hummer enters state ranked No. 4, one sport behind Bradley.

Karson Hill, Trenton

The Trenton freshman survived overtime to take the 103-pound district title, but his chances of reaching the state finals might have taken a hit with the win against Marceline’s Matthew Smith.

Hill and Smith rank 1 and 2, respectively, and now move to opposite sides of the bracket. With third-ranked Blake Byrne of Seneca out with injury and the fourth- and fifth-ranked wrestlers vanquished by Hill and Smith at districts, the top two would appear set for a potential rematch.

Not so fast.

On the top-half of the bracket with Hill is Cory Lester of John Burroughs, who has received some late talk as a state title contender.

John Burroughs — previously Class 2 — doesn’t submit many of its results to missouriwrestling.com, which puts the rankings together, but Lester has only two losses and appears to be the wild card in this bracket.

Tony Smith of North Platte and Tate Smith of Seneca will battle Matthew Smith on the bottom half for a state finals berth, while Hill (36-1) and Lester (45-2) appear headed for a showdown to prove how good Lester really is.

Class 1, 112 pounds

Lathrop’s Jerad Potter really messed with this bracket when he unseated two-time state finalist and 2007 state champion Logan Welch of Lexington.

Potter’s 17-13 upset of Welch in the district finals shifted Welch to the top half of the bracket. Including top-ranked Welch, the No. 1, 2, 3, 9 and 10 wrestlers are in that half.

When you also consider that No. 5 and No. 7 did not qualify, it really makes the top half strong.

Mid-Buchanan’s Kevin Steeby — ranked No. 4 — also scored an upset of No. 2 Tyler Hamilton of Marceline in the finals of his district. That puts Steeby and Potter — ranked sixth — on a possible collision course in the semifinals.

The only other ranked wrestler in their half is No. 8 Bruce Fair of Trenton, who finished fourth in the same district at Steeby and Hamilton.

This is a prime example of what a couple of upsets can do to one single bracket.

Jake Rumpf, Mid-Buchanan

No Jordan Orr in this year’s bracket, but Rumpf might have found a new nemesis.

After losing to Brookfield’s Orr in the state semifinals two straight years, Rumpf comes in as the No. 2 wrestler at 130 pounds this season. The top-ranked wrestler? That would be Whitfield’s Ryan Mango (46-0) — a two-time state champion ranked near the top nationally by numerous publications.

Rumpf did manage to avoid Mango on his side of the bracket, so a shot at his first state finals seems likely.

Central junior Mike Schmidt (34-3) ranks No. 3 is on the same side as Rumpf and would appear to be the biggest obstacle to the finals for the Mid-Buchanan junior. If Rumpf does make the finals, Mango almost assuredly will meet him there.

Rumpf has only six losses in his career, including four to Orr and one to Mango. Rumpf met Mango earlier this season and led the Whitfield senior 4-1 before being pinned in the third period.

Clearly, it would take a monumental upset for Rumpf to earn his elusive state title this year, but you better believe he will be motivated for Schmidt and/or Mango.

Central’s five qualifiers

With Central, you can’t talk about state finals with the competition in Class 4.

Instead, let’s take a look at the Indians best shots at a state medal. Looking at the brackets, I would lean toward Lane Swan (125) and Josh Phillips (160).

As I mentioned earlier, a trip to the semifinals guarantees at least a sixth-place medal.

Swan — now a two-time qualifier — battles Brett Carrigan of Oakville in the first round. Neither are ranked in the top-eight at 125 on missouriwrestling.com.

If Swan beats Carrigan to reach the quarterfinals, his potential opponents are No. 7 Harold Ritchie of Francis Howell North and unranked Kyle Hanson of Lebanon.

Not easy, but not impossible.

Phillips — who finished second in Class 4 District 4 — won’t likely do it with a semifinal trip. Unranked at 160, Phillips (30-2) faces No. 4 Kyle Mankowich of Seckman in the first round. An upset there would yield a likely matchup with No. 2 Christian Wyatt of Jefferson City.

Phillips likely will have to do a lot of work on the backside for a medal.

At 119, Bobby Nachtrab survived a brutal district that featured four ranked wrestlers and the Central junior, who is unranked. Nachtrab finished fourth and drew Francis Howell Central junior Steven Avery, who beat Nachtrab in the 103-pound quarterfinals at state in 2007.

Avery went on to place fifth that year then fourth at 112 last year.

Nachtrab missed a medal by one win in 2007 then missed the second half of last year with a concussion.