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Revised predictions for the 81st Annual Academy Awards
by Shea Conner
Thursday, January 15, 2009

In September, I gave a very early shot at guessing the nominees for the Oscars. I'd say I did pretty good in some areas (Best Actor) and epically failed in others (Best Director). Therefore, I have revised my predictions. Here are the films, actors and directors who will likely be nominated a week from now.

BEST PICTURE (EARLY)

  • "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
  • "The Changeling"
  • "Frost/Nixon"
  • "Revolutionary Road"
  • "The Reader"

BEST PICTURE (REVISED)

  • "Slumdog Millionaire"
  • "Milk"
  • "Frost/Nixon"
  • "Revolutionary Road"
  • "The Reader"

Winner (early): "The Changeling"

Winner (revised): "Slumdog Millionaire" -- After a great showing at the Golden Globes, the little film that could will win the biggest award of the night.

BEST ACTOR (EARLY)

  • Sean Penn in "Milk"
  • Viggo Mortensen in "The Road"
  • Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler"
  • Leonardo DiCaprio in "Revolutionary Road"
  • Brad Pitt in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"

BEST ACTOR (REVISED)

  • Sean Penn in "Milk"
  • Frank Langella in "Frost/Nixon"
  • Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler"
  • Leonardo DiCaprio in "Revolutionary Road"
  • Clint Eastwood in "Gran Torino"

Winner (early): Mickey Rourke

Winner (revised): Mickey Rourke -- This will definitely be the tightest competition of them all. Penn and Eastwood could just as easily win. However, I'm going with Rourke because his career is a great comeback story.

BEST ACTRESS (EARLY)

  • Emma Thompson in "Brideshead Revisited"
  • Keira Knightley in "The Duchess"
  • Anne Hathaway in "Rachel Getting Married"
  • Kate Winslet in "Revolutionary Road"
  • Meryl Streep in "Mamma Mia"

BEST ACTRESS (REVISED)

  • Angelina Jolie in "The Changeling"
  • Sally Hawkins in "Happy-Go-Lucky"
  • Anne Hathaway in "Rachel Getting Married"
  • Kate Winslet in "Revolutionary Road"
  • Meryl Streep in "Doubt"

Winner (early): Kate Winslet

Winner (revised): Kate Winslet -- "Revolutionary Road" is bound to win at least one Academy Award and Winslet will be the one to bring it home. She has never won an Oscar before and the Academy will recognize that.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (EARLY)

  • Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight"
  • Brad Pitt in "Burn After Reading"
  • Russell Crowe in "Body of Lies"
  • Josh Brolin in "Milk"
  • Jeremy Irons in "Appaloosa"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (REVISED)

  • Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight"
  • Ralph Fiennes in "The Duchess"
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Doubt"
  • Josh Brolin in "Milk"
  • Dev Patel in "Slumdog Millionaire"

Winner (original): Heath Ledger

Winner (revised): Heath Ledger -- This award is a lock. Everyone, and I mean everyone wants him to win an Oscar for his performance as The Joker. Many people (this ranting reporter included) will be angry if he doesn't. The Academy has known this for months and will make the right call.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (EARLY)

  • Amy Ryan in "The Changeling"
  • Ellen Page in "Smart People"
  • Frances McDormand in "Burn After Reading"
  • Kathy Bates in "Revolutionary Road"
  • Penelope Cruz in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (REVISED)

  • Viola Davis in "Doubt"
  • Kate Winslet in "The Reader"
  • Marisa Tomei in "The Wrestler"
  • Taraji P. Henson in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
  • Penelope Cruz in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"

Winner (early): Penelope Cruz

Winner (revised): Penelope Cruz -- She was nominated for "Volver," but this is Cruz's best portrayal yet. Playing Juan Antonio's unstable and bisexual ex-wife, Cruz is captivating in this Woody Allen flick. Winslet will get her Oscar later in the show.

BEST DIRECTOR (EARLY)

  • Ron Howard for "Frost/Nixon"
  • Steven Soderbergh for "The Argentine"
  • Clint Eastwood for "The Changeling"
  • Sam Mendes for "Revolutionary Road"
  • Spike Lee for "Miracle at St. Anna"

BEST DIRECTOR (REVISED)

  • Ron Howard for "Frost/Nixon"
  • Danny Boyle for "Slumdog Millionaire"
  • Christopher Nolan for "The Dark Knight"
  • Gus Van Sant for "Milk"
  • Darren Aronofsky for "The Wrestler"

Winner (original): Steven Soderbergh

Winner (revised): Ron Howard -- The acclaimed director has won several Oscars, but this bio pic might be the best movie he ever made. The golden boy will win again.

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