BRUSSELS — There are already more than 100,000 international troops in Afghanistan working with 200,000 Afghan security forces and police. It adds up to a 12-1 numerical advantage over Taliban rebels, but it hasn’t led to anything close to victory.
Now, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan is asking for tens of thousands more troops to stem the escalating insurgency, raising the question of how many more troops it would take to succeed.
The commander, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, says the extra forces are needed to implement a new strategy that focuses on protecting civilians and depriving the militants of popular support in a country where tribal militias may be Taliban today and farmers tomorrow.
The White House said Tuesday that President Barack Obama has nearly finished gathering information and advice on how to proceed in Afghanistan, where bombings killed eight more American troops. With October now the deadliest month for U.S. forces in the war, many experts question the need for more troops.
“The U.S. and its allies already have ample numbers and firepower to annihilate the Taliban, if only the Taliban would cooperate by standing still and allowing us to bomb them to smithereens,” said Andrew Bacevich, a professor of international relations and history at Boston University, and one-time platoon leader in Vietnam.
“But the insurgents are conducting the war in ways that do not play to (allied) strengths.”
The Taliban rebels are estimated to number no more than 25,000. Ljubomir Stojadinovic, a military analyst and guerrilla warfare expert from Serbia, said that although McChrystal’s reinforcements would lift the ratio to 20-1 or more, they would prove counterproductive.
“It’s impossible to regain the initiative by introducing more foreign forces, which will only breed more resentment and more recruits for the enemy,” he said. “The Soviets tried the exact same thing in Afghanistan in the 1980s with disastrous results.”
McChrystal’s defenders say the U.S. has learned from Soviets’ mistakes. At his instruction, NATO troops are increasingly abandoning heavy-handed tactics.
The U.S. says it’s already adjusting its strategy to shift the focus from hunting down and killing Taliban fighters to protecting civilians — in some cases allowing insurgent units to remain untouched if they are not deemed an imminent threat.
McChrystal has also insisted that ground commanders use airpower only as a last resort and when they are absolutely sure civilians are not at risk. As a career Special Forces officer, McChrystal is likely to use small maneuverable units rather than large, heavily armed formations.
Also, experts say guerrilla numbers are not the most important factor in a counterinsurgency campaign. Instead, the number of U.S. troops depends on more complex calculations, including the size and location of the population, and the extent of the training effort for the Afghan security forces.
Appathurai said the goals of the Afghanistan strategy are key to determining how many forces are required. The goal is to have enough troops in populated areas to protect the citizenry and to provide the forces needed to train the Afghans.
In addition, while there may be as many as 25,000 Taliban, it is not a monolithic group like an army, with a clear chain of command that has to be confronted soldier for soldier. Instead, it is a scattered and diverse mix of insurgents, some more ideologically motivated than others.
There are currently about 104,000 international troops in Afghanistan, including about 68,000 Americans. Afghan security forces consist of 94,000 troops supported by a similar number of police, bringing the total Allied force to close to 300,000 members.
"The White House said Tuesday that President Barack Obama has nearly finished gathering information and advice on how to proceed in Afghanistan..."
Oh, so that is what he was doing at the four fundraisers he was at during the past few days. First things first with this incompetent empty suit.
The "expert" on the ground asks for more troops, but the no nothing community organizer knows better, huh? I guess the czars and other misfits and domestic terrorists that run the white house have better ideas and know how to win a war because of there vast experience. I tell you this "empty suit" is leading this country down the drain and his socialist agenda is increasing. Come quickly 2012.
While Obama has been "gathering information" - how many soldiers have died?
What a pitiful example of a "commander in chief".
interesting how many armchair experts have such intuitive advice. perhaps they also now understand the consequence of having taken the eye off the ball in the first place. personally a large surge in troops does seems to be the best approach but given the history and complexity of the region it is difficult to say whether such actions are the only viable solution. had more intensive debate and thought originally been put into this matter during previous years, others might not be faced with unraveling the mess.
i don't see any solution comeing from this white house. not before elections comeing next year. hes got a left wing minority to appease first.
meanwhile our boys just keep dying. thanks to all politicians,hope you all burn in hell.
sorry it just hits me close to home when ever a sericeman or woman is so used with so little disregard for their lives. i just remenber the jhonson years,so many wasted lifes.